Kettering, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

743
FXUS61 KILN 071748
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
148 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will quickly cross the region this morning
into early afternoon. A digging mid level trough and its associated
low pressure and cold front will then push southeast across the
region this afternoon into this evening. Much colder air will arrive
tonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds in. The high will move
east Tuesday night. The next weather system will affect the area by
mid week, bringing an increasing chance for precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Digging trough moving through the Great Lakes will bring a fast-
moving cold front through the region late this afternoon. Winds will
shift from the southwest ahead of the front to northwesterly behind
it, with gusts to the 20-25 mph range. While temperatures will rise
into the 50s across most the area today, strong cold air advection
in the wake of the front will cause them to quickly fall off into the
40s. Can`t rule out a light shower along the front, but most
locations will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For this evening, the cold front will continue southeast, taking its
clouds and low chances for showers (a wet snowflake could mix in
across central Ohio) with it. Skies will clear overnight, with strong
CAA funneling in on low level northwest to northerly flow. We have
begun the Frost/Freeze program across our entire forecast area. Thus,
we are forecasting lows in the lower to mid 20s by Tuesday morning.
With persistent wind flow, the chances of frost will be minimal, but
certainly the cold temperatures will pose an issue to those with
agricultural interests.

High pressure will build into the region on Tuesday, passing east of
the area Tuesday night. Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast
for Tuesday. After a cold start, it will remain below normal for
early April despite sunshine. Highs will range from the lower 40s
north to the mid/upper 40s south. Mostly clear skies Tuesday evening
will give way to increasing clouds from the west ahead of the next
weather system. With light winds and thickening clouds likely holding
off until late in the west, temperatures will fall into the mid and
upper 20s. Frost will be likely as conditions will be favorable for
its formation.

On Wednesday, low pressure and a warm front will make their way from
the central Plains into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valley. Isentropic lift associated with a decent low level jet will
spread precipitation from west to east during the day. A little bit
of snow may mix in across the north depending on the arrival of the
precipitation. Otherwise, the main ptype will be rain. HIghs will
warm from cold morning lows as the low level flow becomes more
southerly. Temperatures will range from the mid 40s north to the
upper 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
West to northwest mid level flow with an embedded shortwave and
associated surface low tracking thru the area Wednesday
night/Thursday. This will bring the threat for rain into the area and
with some instability across the south - the threat for embedded
thunder. Temperatures look to be close to normal Thursday with highs
ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.

Models fairly consistent dropping additional energy into the Ohio
Valley and carving out a mid and upper level trof and eventually
developing a closed low this weekend. Have chance pops for showers
Friday with the best chance across the eastern counties. Temperatures
turn a little cooler Friday with highs of 50 to 55.

Confidence on exact location where mid level lows close off and how
fast they propagate is typically rather low at this forecast
timeframe. Deterministic ECMWF and ML continue to keep the low east
of our area Saturday, while GFS keeps the system over the region
Saturday before shifting off to the east. For now have a dry forecast
for Saturday but confidence is low.

Mid level ridging quickly builds into the region Sunday into Monday.
Model solutions diverge on the strength of the ridge and how fast a
return flow develops. Will keep the area dry Sunday and only allow
for slight chance pops on Monday. Highs ranging from the lower 50s to
the upper 50s Saturday, warm to 60 to 65 Sunday, and then to the
lower 70s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front will quickly shift southeast through the terminals late
this afternoon into the evening. Winds will be northwesterly to
northerly behind the front and become gusty into the overnight hours.
There is a signal in the guidance for a narrow band of MVFR ceilings
behind the front. Have included this in the TAFs for planning
purposes, though it is possible that the lower ceilings end up
patchy.

Skies will clear and winds decrease a bit for Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the region.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday.
MVFR ceilings possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...